AI Shortlist · Guides

AI tools that pay for themselves: the 90-second check

Every AI subscription is a bet. The vendor says "save hours". Your job is to find out whether those hours are worth more than the price. That's the whole test — and it takes about 90 seconds per tool.

The rule

Payback = (hours saved per month) × (your hourly value) − (monthly price)
If payback is less than the price, the tool is a hobby. If it's more than 3× the price, it's a keeper.

Hourly value doesn't have to be your salary. Use what an hour is worth to you — if five saved hours a month mean one extra evening with your family, price that honestly.

A worked example

An AI meeting notetaker: $20/month. It saves ~20 minutes of note-writing after every call.

InputValue
Calls per week5
Minutes saved per call20
Hours saved per month~7
Hourly value$50
Value created$350
Cost$20
Payback17× ✓

That one stays. Now run the same math on the AI writing assistant you opened twice last month.

Three questions that kill bad tools fast

1. What did it replace?

If nothing was being done before, it isn't saving time — it's creating a new task. New tasks rarely pay.

2. What breaks if you cancel it?

If the honest answer is "nothing, I'd just do it slightly slower", cancel it. The exception: tools whose output you're contractually or legally on the hook for (invoicing, compliance, tax).

3. Who uses it besides you?

Tools used by 1 of 5 people in a team are almost always an unbudgeted cost. Either roll it out or cut it.

The categories that almost never pay back

Not because the tech is bad — because the value is too diffuse to measure:

• General-purpose "AI writer" subscriptions when you already pay for a frontier model
• The $19/month "wrapper" apps that call the same API you can call yourself
• AI features bundled into a product you bought for something else (you're paying twice)
• Anything bought during a launch-week discount and never opened since

The 10-minute cancellation audit

Open your card statement, filter for software, and list every subscription for the last 3 months. Next to each one write the payback number from above. Sort ascending. Everything in the top third is a candidate to cancel this week — and that money is your budget for the tools that do pay.

Every Tuesday I run this math on new AI tools and send the 3 that pass — with the numbers, not the hype.

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Common questions

Is a payback of 1× good enough?

No. At 1× you've broken even on arithmetic but not on switching cost, training, and the risk the tool changes pricing. Aim for 3× or skip it.

How long should I trial a tool before deciding?

Two real work cycles. If the tool can't show value inside two weeks of actual use, it won't.

Should I buy annual plans for the discount?

Only after one paid month at full price. The discount is worth less than the flexibility you give up.